For the first time, coronavirus spread in the United States as a scourge mainly in coastal and large cities, eliminating many rural areas, small towns, and even small towns. Translated into the political geography of the USA: Virus strike democrats first
No more. An analysis by the Associated Press of data on cases of coronavirus shows that the virus has moved and is spreading rapidly in the republican regions, a new path with wide potential political consequences.
Statements that Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election account for about 75% of new cases, and this trend has intensified since late May. In the constituencies that voted for Trump in 2016, there has been an increase in the number of deaths and deaths, and now this influence is observed almost even in those constituencies that voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Virus spreading to red America could kill partisan divisions disease, At the first stage, the virus was an undeniable reality for many Democrats, and mainly from the governors and mayors of the Democratic Republic had to issue the most stringent orders to stay at home, which helped slow down the growth of the economy.
Meanwhile, Trump’s base has not been so directly affected. His supporters were less likely to support preventative measuresmore likely to believe that dangers are exaggerated, and less worried that friends or family members may become infected. Some Republican governors followed the president’s lead, taking longer to issue “stay home” orders, making them less stringent, and then more willingly loosening business restrictions in late April and May.
Already the last surge makes some GOP governors to change courseIt remains unclear whether this will force GP voters to reconsider their views on the virus and how their leaders are dealing with the crisis.
New York Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo made no effort last week trying to justify himself and other Democrats who were the first to fight the virus and faced skepticism from Trump and other Republicans.
“You played politics with this virus, and you lost,” he told CNN, indirectly addressing Republicans who downplayed the virus. “You told the people of this state, you told the people of this country, the White House:“ Don’t worry about it. Go about your business. This is all a democratic hyperbole. ”
“This has never been politics,” Cuomo said. “It has always been a science.”
The counties won by Trump see new cases last week at almost the same speed as the counties that Trump lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016. But this follows from Clinton counties, which have a decreasing proportion of new cases during most of spring after the initial rounds guidelines for social distance and restrictions on business and public meetings.
As with COVID-19, the distribution of deaths has also leveled off. The initial surge in March and early April occurred in democratic districts. But then in these districts there was a sharp decrease in mortality per million inhabitants. Meanwhile, Trump constituencies moved up, stabilized, and then began to fall, but at a lower level than that of democratic constituencies. Now there is much less gap between the two groups.
Perhaps the most noticeable change in measuring trends in the development of coronavirus by political geography occurs when considering cases in individual states. Those that Clinton won in 2016 accounted for a significant portion of the first cases. In March, four of five new cases were diagnosed in these states. But since then, the trend lines have taken opposite trajectories. Trump states have won about three of the four newest cases.
The mortality rate of COVID-19 by state presidential election allows us to draw similar conclusions. Initial measures showed surges in Clinton in 2016, with Trump lagging behind. But trendlines during the spring brought parity, and Trump states sometimes exceeded Clinton states in terms of new deaths.
One clear pattern: the governor of the state seems to matter. New cases in states with Republican governors, regardless of how these states voted in 2016, are now significantly ahead of cases in states controlled by Democrats. This circumstance arises after months of deviation from the initial analysis, when democracies were hot spots. This trend roughly reflects how governors on both sides approached the pandemic. Republican Party governors tend to be more inclined toward lighter government restrictions on public gatherings and business operations. On average, democratic governors adopted stricter restrictions and more strongly advocated caution.
The pattern repeats when looking at death. States with republican governors saw an increase as the total share of the national measure. Meanwhile, democracies have fallen over time. In recent weeks, rough parity and smaller surges and declines between the two groups of states have been observed. But this is another notable correlation between public health outcomes and policies chosen by governors.