July 3, 2020
AliExpress WW
Total US Coronavirus Cases Likely 10x Higher Than Official Tally, CDC Warns

Total US Coronavirus Cases Likely 10x Higher Than Official Tally, CDC Warns

AliExpress WW

As public health officials argue that the death rate from coronavirus in the US will return to its deadliest peak in late April / early May, the CDC just issued a warning saying that the number of Americans infected with coronavirus is probably 10 times higher. than we are. know.

AliExpress WW

To be precise, this will mean that the total number of cases in the US alone is closer to 20 million. These numbers are based on the results of several rounds of control testing using antibody detection tests. While the CDC supports numbers, some experts raise questions about antibody tests and their susceptibility to false-positive results. However, some rounds of surveillance in New York and New York showed that as many as 1/5 of the people (in New York) tested positive for antibodies.

Here is another from Reuters:

Government experts believe that more than 20 million Americans could have become infected with coronavirus, which is 10 times more than official data, indicating that many people were ill or had this disease, senior officials said.

According to officials, the estimate obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is based on serological testing used to determine the presence of antibodies that indicate the presence of a disease in humans.

Officials, speaking on Wednesday evening with a small group of journalists, said the estimate was based on the number of known cases, from 2.3 million to 2.4 million, times the average antibody rate obtained from serological tests, about the average. 10 to 1.

“If you multiply the number of cases by this ratio, you get a figure of 20 million.” said one official.

If true, the estimate suggests that the percentage of deaths from this disease in the US is lower than expected. More than 120,000 Americans have died from the disease since the start of the pandemic earlier this year.

With 20 million people infected, the death rate in the United States is only 0.6%. It also explains why mortality continues to plateau or even decline, even when new infections are diagnosed. One widely cited Harvard epidemiologist, Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, said he believed the numbers were “reasonable,” given his experience with serological testing.

However, as Dr. Feigl-Ding noted, these data should not be used to confirm that the herd immunity is high enough in the United States to move forward without the vaccine. As Sweden’s leading epidemiologist noted last week, herd immunity to KOVID-19 is something that requires an amazingly long time to develop. Moreover, we do not yet know whether these antibodies or any future vaccine will become obsolete in a virus mutations.


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