The pressure is already increasing, and state and local governments are again forced to move to compulsory home storage and compulsory business closure.
The constant drum heading battle, designed to convince people to take new control from the draconian government, is almost no different from what it was in March. Arizona “lost control of the epidemic“One headline proclaims, and another insists”Beds in the intensive care unit“Government bureaucrat in Texas says the situation is “apocalyptic” and Bloomberg dutifully shows the word in the title. The governor of California is threatening another order at home. The Texas governor reintroduced some restrictions. Florida “suspended” the mixing of its forbidden decrees.
Americans should expect more from the year. As soon as we arrive in September, the number of hospital admissions due to common winter illnesses, such as the flu, will begin to increase. At this point, daily headlines about “full” or nearly full hospitals will be daily or even hourly.
There is no doubt that politicians and government “experts,” such as Anthony Fauci, will briefly leave their luxurious homes and gated communities to demand that the middle class and working class of Americans again be forced to quit their jobs, cut wages and sit at home. (Politicians claiming bans will, of course, continue to collect their six-figure salaries.)
But there is a problem with the plans of politicians. They suggest that Americans will obey orders to stay at home to the same extent as in March and April.
This may not be a very reasonable assumption. This will be due to at least two reasons.
First, more Americans now doubt the official narrative of the disease.
Secondly, the Americans are now in a worse economic situation compared to the time of the first block.
Both of these factors will contribute to greater blocking resistance.
In other words, the second block will be more difficult – both economically and politically – than the first. Economic pain will intensify with increasing political doubt.
Second round lock also poses a very large economic risk to families.
Supporters of forced locks have long tried to portray opponents of locks as simply “people who want a haircut.” However, the reality is much darker, and the threat to the economic well-being of many families will lead to a second round of locks much worse than to the first.
Many Americans voluntarily agreed to this because they started with a relatively good economic situation. Politicians assured them that it was only two weeks or even a month. In the end, when the locks started, the economy had a very high level of employment. The US was in the last days of the boom phase in a boom and bust cycle. Nevertheless, he was still in the boom phase. Since the spring blockages began, 40 million Americans have become unemployed. Twenty million of them are still unemployed, and more Over the past week, 1.3 million Americans have become new unemployed. Tax revenues also fell, reflecting a downward spiral in American income.
Bankruptcies are increasing now. In recent weeks, only some of the companies that filed for bankruptcy are J.Crew, Gold’s Gym, Neiman Marcus, Hertz, GNC, and Chuck E. Cheese. Thousands of outlets for these companies will be closed. Their headquarters will be fired.
The idea that anyone can simply “work from home”, of course, has always been the fantasy of wealthy people. The homework myth is particularly destructive for low-income workers and for blacks and latinosMoreover, if school closures remain, many parents who rely on public schools as “free” day care will end up without schools as a resource.
Until now, all this has been mitigated by a strange fiscal and monetary “incentive” aimed at saving bankrupt industries, small enterprises and households. Households received incentive checks as incomes dried up or declined.
The federal budget is likely to exceed ten trillion this year (more than double the last year’s budget) as a result of literally trillions of new dollars created from the air to fund incentive checks and assistance.
If the restrictions are introduced again, expect even more “incentives”, bringing the federal budget to 12 trillion, or perhaps 14 trillion. There will be no end to sight.
But, obviously, the endless printing of money cannot go on indefinitely. At some point, upward pressure on interest rates and concerns about the value of the dollar become so strong that even Congress and the Fed fear another round of stimulus. If this happens this year, household finances will collapse immediately. Other businesses will go under. The work will dry. 30 percent of Americans already missed their home payments in JuneExpect this to get a lot worse if lock mandates are tightened again.
And as economic shocks get worse, expect more from what happened during the March and April disruptions: more child abuse, more suicidesmore drug overdose. Expect more deaths from non-COVID causes, as “selective” care is prohibited by executive order.
New locks will last longer
Also complicating the situation is the fact that if locks are tightened now, the duration of the locks will probably last much longer than a month or two of the promised locks. Hospitalization for a wide range of diseases (not only for COVID-19) will only worsen when the flu season begins in the northern hemisphere in three months. At this stage, until the end of the flu season 2020–21. Still far.
If the current plan for “experts” and politicians is to postpone a delay of six or eight months until next summer, be prepared for an economic depression of unprecedented proportions.
Block advocates have always argued that the economy will survive relatively unscathed because job losses and closures were simply “temporary.” Their story stated that the workers would be fired only for a couple of months, and then recovery would begin.
But what if they get their desire for unlimited blocking, which will last from mid-summer until May next year? After all, this is the reality we are looking at if increasing hospital admissions justify blocking. We will watch month after month of growing unemployment.
Compliance will be a problem.
increased economic pain means locks will be harder to apply, and now Americans rate them the risk of a serious illness will be much lower Now, what was during the first lock.
Back in March and April, many Americans did not know what to expect. Experts and politicians have assured us that we are all faced with a truly apocalyptic scenario. Bodies will build up on the streets. Wheelchairs lay on the sidewalks as patients were dying unattended. Americans were worried: does this disease affect everyone equally? What is my risk level? Many people took a wait and see attitude.
But now, when much more is known than it was in March, it is obvious that the risk is hardly the same for everyone – 40 percent of deaths occurred in nursing homes – and it makes no sense to block the whole population to protect certain specific populations. States that never entered locks during the first round, for example, there were fewer deaths per capita,
Since March, the CDC has repeatedly reduced its estimated mortality. For example, many Americans are gradually realizing that in the US, 40 percent of deaths associated with COVID-19 are in nursing homes. Many now know that among known cases under the age of 50, mortality is now estimated to be well below 1 percent. According to the CDC, the mortality rate from symptomatic cases among people under the age of 50 is only 0.05 percent, compared with 1.3 percent for people aged 65 and over and 0.2 percent for children aged 50 to 64 years. . These are only symptomatic cases. Many who become ill do not show any symptoms at all.
The Americans realized that the risk for most Americans is much lower than what the excessive panic rhetoric that has been repeatedly used by my media and politicians suggests. Moreover, for many people, COVID-19 news has already receded to the level of background noise. Every day they are bombarded with a terrible warning of impending death and destruction. Warnings of this kind will soon have a diminishing effect.
Just as Americans made a world long ago with relatively high risks associated with highway trips, many Americans are likely to do the same with COVID-19. After all, the most dangerous thing that most people do every day – by far – is to get into a car and drive a car. However, it seems that few people allow risk to limit their daily activities. The more dangers COVID-19 becomes just another daily point, the easier it is to ignore warnings.
Many will also be less likely to submit because of the apparent hypocrisy of government officials due to the June riots and protests. The medical staff, who condemned any kind of assembly – and especially the protests against blocking – suddenly decided that the mass gatherings were perfectly normal, because the policies behind the protests were to the taste of the experts. People will not forget this.
For those who refuse to comply, politicians will be sent to the police to enforce their decrees. Police who refused to stop the rebels, however, will arrest peaceful business owners. This will also be remembered. Resentment will build. The impoverishment will continue. The Americans will go for a ransom. The “death of despair” will grow.
Politicians will insist that it is “worth it” and “we are all together.” The longer it lasts, the less the public will agree.