Whether someone believes in the official data on the virus or wants to reject it as a “pandemic” doesn’t matter for two reasons: i) markets are still responding to ever-increasing headlines, fully aware that they will form a fiscal and monetary -credit policy, especially with various Fed speakers yesterday warning that the second wave would lead to more Fed intervention, and ii) the global coronavirus pandemic has long ceased to be epidemiological, and since then it has become a political weapon that people with certain the agenda. That is why various states will strive to use any published data to achieve their political intentions, which, according to many, involves a new round of stops at the end of the summer, and in any case before the elections, to provoke another economic crisis. and further undermining the changes in Trump’s re-election, despite the administration’s solemn oaths that the “second wave” is not closing.
So what does the data show?
According to the latest Goldman state tracker virus tracker, the prevalence of coronavirus symptoms is increasing, with the percentage of patients seeking medical attention for symptoms of a disease like Covid at 3.5%, up 0.4% from 2 weeks ago. The number of confirmed daily new cases has steadily increased over the past few days to 86 per million, resulting in a 2-month decline. Most of this is due to increased testing: indeed, the volume of daily tests for coronavirus over the past two weeks has grown by 23%, while the rate of positive results has grown by 1.3 percentage points. up to 6.2%. On the other hand, mortality over the past two weeks has decreased (-12% to 1.9 per million), although mortality is several weeks behind new cases.
Recall that the federal government recommends that states meet four criteria to resume work:
- symptoms should decrease
- new cases should decrease
- a positive test result should be below 10%,
- At least 30% of the intensive care unit bandwidth should be available.
Currently, Arizona and South Carolina, which account for 4% of the US population, do not meet any of the four criteria; 8 states, including Texas and Florida, meet only 1 criterion; 14 are found 2; 12 are 3; and only 14 states meet all 4 criteria.
As Goldman notes, while states make their own opening decisions, a decrease in hospital capacity below 20% may make states think about slowing down or canceling reopening. In this context, according to the latest CDC data, Alabama and Maryland currently have 23% of beds in intensive care units (with Covid patients, which account for 7% and 13% of occupancy, respectively), and in Arizona – 25% (with patients Covid, which account for 11%).
Looking at the average US state, Goldman concludes that he currently meets 2 of the 4 federal gating criteria, with the most notable recent development being that the prevalence of symptoms like Covid is decreasing in states representing 20% of the population, according to compared with about 50% a week ago. New cases are declining in states representing only 30% of the population, which is also worse than last week. More encouraging In the vast majority of states, the frequency of positive tests for coronavirus is lower than 10%, and in states covering 80% of the population, the available intensive care unit capacity exceeds 30%.
Key questions: is the above change in trend enough to destroy the narrative of recovery and force states to resume hateful blackouts in the coming weeks? And if so, how will the Trump administration react, and will the population even follow any new localization measures?