As the summer sun rises, we see a shortened trading week with Friday on the weekend in the US instead of Independence Day on Saturday, and, as DB Jim Reed predicts, activity is likely to decline early Thursday on the eve of the weekend.
It said The last important act of the week will be a report on the most important payrolls, postponed to Thursday, where DB economists expect a further increase in non-farm wages by + 2 million, after an unexpected increase of + 2.509 million last month, along with a further decrease in unemployment to 12.6% (it is not clear if this is assumed that BLS will continue to do so) recognized the same mistake that he had made over the past two months). These improved labor market indicators are consistent with what we saw in other indicators, such as weekly initial jobless claims, which have been falling for 12 consecutive weeks. Nevertheless, it is worth remembering that given the fact that in March and April the United States lost more than 22 million jobs, even another reading + 2 million. It will mean that wages will recover less than a quarter of their total losses, which suggests that before the labor market is again returning to normal.
Another highlight of the data will be the final June PMI releases from around the world. Production figures will be released on Wednesday before Friday mainly the production and composite PMIs (with the exception of the USA), as well as the ISM production index from the USA (Wednesday). As for countries where we already have PMI readings, they are usually surprised at a positive result, although many of them remain below the 50 mark. It is also worth watching the figures for China, given that in the process of reopening compared to the United States and Europe, they have advanced far ahead.
In politics The key event this week will be the meeting of Chancellor Merkel with President Macron, which will be held today, and the EU budget and the recovery fund will be on the agenda. This is on the eve of the next summit of EU leaders, scheduled for July 17-18, where 27 leaders will meet in person in Brussels to further discuss the restoration fund. Meanwhile, in early July on Wednesday it is formally clear that Germany has passed to the alternate EU presidency, which they will occupy over the next six months.
Staying with politics, Reid notes that Brexit talks between the UK and the EU about their future relationship will be back again. This will be the first series of intensive negotiations that will take place every week over the next five weeks, as both sides hope to come to an agreement after fairly slow progress in the negotiations to date. After the last round of negotiations, a high-level meeting took place between Prime Minister Johnson and the Presidents of the European Commission, Council and Parliament, at which both sides in their statement agreed that “a new impetus is needed in the discussions.” It seems that now a little more positive than a month ago, but there is still a lot of work.
Elsewhere, we publish the FOMC minutes for the June meeting on Wednesday, as well as a speech by Fed Chairman Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin tomorrow before the House Financial Services Committee. Otherwise, Bank of England Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Canliff will speak next week, as well as the ECB’s ploy and Williams’s Fed President.
Courtesy of Deutsche Bank, here is the daily calendar of events:
- Data: Japan May retail sales; Preliminary June Consumer Price Index of Spain; UK, May, consumer credit, mortgage approval, money supply M4; Eurozone June Economics, industry, services and consumer confidence; Preliminary June Consumer Price Index in Germany; The US may pending home sales and the June Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index.
- Central banks: Performances by Bailey, Briden and Wlig in BoE; Speech by Fed Daily and Williams; Georgiev speech of the IMF.
- Politics: Leaders of Germany and France meet to discuss a deal on the EU Recovery Fund.
- Others: Michel Barnier, EU chief negotiator for Brexit, is meeting with British counterpart David Frost for further negotiations on a trade deal.
- Data: Japan pre-May industrial production; China June official PMI; UK Final: June GfK consumer confidence, Lloyds business barometer for June, Q1 GDP, personal consumption, government spending, gross fixed capital formation, exports, business investment, current account balance, imports; France preliminary June consumer price index, May consumer price index and consumer spending; Spain, final quarter GDP; Preliminary Consumer Price Index in June and Italian Producer Price Index; Eurozone preliminary consumer price index for June and basic consumer price index; US S & P CoreLogic Housing Price Index for April, Chicago Fed June Activity Index, Consumer Confidence Index, Expectations and Current Situation Index.
- Central banks: ECB Schnabel Speech; Speech BoE Cunliffe and Haldane; Speech by Fed Williams; Columbia betting decision.
- Others: Powell Fed and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin testify before the House of Representatives Finance Group.
- Politics: President of the European Council Charles Michel and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen meet with South Korean President Moon Jae-in at a virtual summit. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg talks about the geopolitical consequences of Covid-19.
- Data: Tankan 2Q survey in Japan, consumer confidence in June and manufacturing PMI in June; China June Production of Caixin PMI; Spain June manufacturing PMI; Italy June manufacturing PMI; French PMI release in June; The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany in June, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in June and the change in unemployment; Manufacturing PMI in June; Final June manufacturing PMI in the UK; Recent weekly MBA mortgage applications in the USA, job cuts in June at Challenger and changes in ADP employment, manufacturing PMI for June, manufacturing expenses in May, production ISM in June, new orders, prices and employment paid, FOMC meeting minutes for June , total car sales in June.
- Central banks: Sweden Bet Decision by BoE Haskel; Speech by Fed Evans.
- Politics: Russia spends the last day of voting to amend the country’s constitution.
- Others: The head of the financial regulator BaFin in Germany testifies in the German parliament about the accounting scandal in the payment company Wirecard AG; The agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada should enter into force.
- Data: Eurozone, May, PPI and unemployment rate; US trade balance for May, non-farm employment rates for June, unemployment and average hourly wages, recent weekly initial and current requirements, May production orders, final May orders for durable goods and capital goods
- Others: SIFMA recommended early closure (2PM EST) for the fixed-income market before the U.S. Independence Day.
- Data: Final June service and composite PMI for Japan, China (Caixin), Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the euro zone and the UK; France’s budget balance in May since the beginning of the year; Changes in UK official reserve for June.
- Central banks: ECB Knot Speech.
- Others: US Independence Day Celebration
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And finally, the courtesy of Goldman, here’s a preview of the events in the US, where, as Jan Hatsius notes, key events this week are the ISM manufacturing index on Wednesday and the employment report on Thursday. The minutes of the FOMC June meeting will be published on Wednesday.
Monday 29th June
- 10:00 a.m. Expected house sales, May (GS + 33.0%, consensus + 18.0%, last -21.8%): According to our estimates, expected home sales recovered by 33.0% in May based on regional data on home sales after falling 21.8% in April. We found that pending home sales are a useful leading indicator of sales of existing homes with a delay of one to two months.
- 10:30 a.m. Fed Dallas manufacturing index, June (consensus -22.0, last -49.2)
- 11:00 AM Fed President San Francisco Daily (FOMC non-voting) says: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak at a panel discussion on higher education. Prepared text is not expected. Expected audience and media.
- 15:00 New York Fed President Williams (FOMC Voter) says: New York Fed President John Williams will lead a discussion with IMF Managing Director Georgieva.
June 30, Tuesday
- 09:00 AM S & P / Case-Shiller 20-city housing price index, April (GS + 0.7%, consensus + 0.5%, last + 0.47%); According to our estimates, the housing price index in 20 cities S & P / Case-Shiller rose by 0.7% in April after rising 0.47% in March.
- 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, June (GS 46.0, consensus 44.0, last 32.3); According to our estimates, the index of business activity in Chicago in June recovered by 13.7 points to 46.0, after falling by 3.1 points in May, which reflects an improvement in the June reading for other production surveys.
- 10:00 AM Conference Board, consumer confidence, June (GS 94.0, consensus 90.5, last 86.6): According to our estimates, the Conference Board consumer confidence index rose to 94.0 in June from 86.6 in May.
- 11:00 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC Voter) says: New York Fed President John Williams will give a speech at a central bank webinar during a pandemic. Prepared text and a Q&A moderator are expected.
- 12:30 PM Fed Chairman Powell (FOMC Voter) says: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Finance Minister Stephen Mnuchin will testify before the House Financial Services Committee. The prepared text is TBD; questions are expected from Members.
- 14:00: Fed President Minneapolis Kashkari (FOMC voter) says: Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari will take part in a virtual panel discussion on race and social justice in the economy. Prepared text is not expected. Q&A audience is expected.
July 1, Wednesday
- Employment Report ADP, June 08:15 (GS + 2500 thousand, Consensus + 2950 thousand, Last -2 760 thousand); We expect that the number of people employed in ADP will increase by 2,500 thousand, which reflects an increase as a result of a decrease in the number of applications for unemployment benefits and rising oil prices. We expect that “active” employment will underestimate the actual increase in work in the ADP model.
- ISM Production Index at 10:00, June (GS 49.0, consensus 49.5, last 43.1); We expect the ISM manufacturing index to grow by 5.9 percentage points. to 49.0 in June after recovery by 1.6 percentage points in May. While we expect improvements in key components – new orders, production and employment; Faster delivery times are likely to affect recovery rates in the composite index.
- 10:00 AM Construction costs, May (GS + 0.8%, consensus + 0.9%, last -2.9%): According to our estimates, in May construction costs will increase by 0.8%, while recovery in the non-residential sector will be faster than in residential construction.
- 10:00 AM Fed President Chicago Evans (FOMC non-voting) says: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will hold a forum on the future of the city of Chicago. The prepared text is not expected, as well as a discussion of monetary policy. Q&A audience is expected.
- 2 p.m. FOMC meeting minutes June 9-10: At its June meeting, the FOMC left the target range for the interest rate unchanged at 0-0.25%; and in the Summary of Economic Forecasts, participants expected high unemployment, low inflation, and a flat rate on funds until 2022. In minutes, we will seek further discussion of the economic outlook and Fed tools, including a discussion by the Committee on the control yield curve.
- 17:00 Sales of cars, May (GS 13.1 million, consensus 13.0 million, last 12.2 million)
Thursday, July 2
- 08:30 am Employment outside agriculture, June (GS + 4250 thousand, Consensus + 3000 thousand, Last + 2.509 thousand); Private payroll, June (GS + 4000 thousand, Consensus + 2.519 thousand, Last + 3094 thousand); Average hourly earnings (mom), June (GS -1.0%, consensus -0.8%, last -1.0%); Average hourly earnings (YoY), June (GS + 5.3%, consensus + 5.3%, last + 6.7%); Unemployment rate, June (GS 12.7%, consensus 12.4%, last 13.3%): According to our estimates, wage growth in the non-agricultural sector accelerated from a record increase of + 2.5 million in May to + 4.25 million in June. Given that most of the economy is reopening, our forecast reflects a rapid, albeit partial, change in layoffs. Although the number of applications for unemployment benefits remains high, alternative data indicate an unprecedented increase in the number of workers in the workplace. We also expect that the seasonal bias in education categories will increase employment growth by about 0.5 million people.
- We expect that about half of the 4.9 million extra workers who were hired but did not work for “other reasons” in May will be reclassified as unemployed in the June household survey, which will put upward pressure on unemployment. In addition, we expect that the level of participation in the workforce will increase, as the renewal of the business stimulated a job search. In general, according to our estimates, the unemployment rate will decrease by 0.6 percentage points. up 12.7% in the report on Thursday. Correcting the erroneous classification of the unemployed, we estimate that the “true” unemployment rate fell more significantly, but to an even higher level (-2.4 percentage points to 14.0% in June from 16.4% in May).
- According to our estimates, the average hourly wage decreased by 1.0% compared with the previous month and by 5.3% compared to the same period last year due to the re-employment of low-paid workers and a corresponding change in composition.
- 08:30. Trade balance, May (GS – $ 54.0 billion, consensus – $ 53.0 billion, the latter – $ 49.4 billion): According to our estimates, the trade deficit increased by $ 4.1 billion in May, reflecting the growing deficit in trade in goods.
- 08:30 a.m. Initial applications for unemployment benefits, week ending June 27 (1375 thousand pounds sterling, consensus 1336 thousand, last 1,480 thousand US dollars): applications for unemployment benefits, week ending June 20 ( consensus forecast of 18.904 thousand, the last 19.522 thousand dollars; According to our estimates, the initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased, but remained at the level of 1375 thousand. In the week ending June 27.
- 10:00 a.m. Production orders, May (GS + 11.1%, consensus + 7.9%, the latter -13.0%); Orders for durable goods, May final (last + 15.8%); Orders for durable goods without export, May final (last + 4.0%); Major orders for capital goods, May, final (last + 2.3%); Basic deliveries of fixed assets, May, final (last + 1.8%)
Friday July 3
- US Independence Day celebrations are celebrated. US stock and bond markets are closed.
Source: DB, BofA