As for central banks, this is not a conspiracy theory, but the term “off-balance sheet”. There is a reason Enron began this massive migration to footnotes. For monetary officials, there is a choice to be like Montague Norman and what he thought of good practice at central banks. Silence.
For many years, the Chinese have tried it differently. Big mom usually left huge dirty marks where clumsy feet could land. This, of course, was so in 2015, when the euro # 3 was strangled by CNY and therefore confuses everyone here (and more than there):
Of course, the most outright impudent intervention began in March 2015. The currency of China, for reasons that the mainstream simply could not understand, fell and was unstable for a year. At the same time, the Chinese economy has shown equally erratic signs of accumulation of shocking weakness.
The communist authorities could not let this go any further. First, in February 2015, the NBK intervened with a “double shot”, lower rates and RRR, and in March, the RMB exchange rate followed, which looked as if it had been intentionally controlled. Many were pleased to publicly and skillfully plant a green shoot at the right time.
Without cubes; all this exploded later that summer, which made August 2015 memorable for all the wrong reasons (and people still call the fall of the currency a “stimulus”).
But here is the thing. While this was happening, you could say that the NSC was involved due to its own balance sheet ratios. Each month, SAFE will first report lower levels of “reserves” in foreign currency, which are then confirmed by the balance sheets of the NBK, a central bank system that starts and often ends with a forex figure.
What is happening now is bullying – or a deliberate shift in programming. Both SAFETY and RBC report that foreign assets were stable; in terms of the monetary base of the latter, with suspicion stable. I mean, there are hardly any changes month after month, a tendency that has been going on for so long that it is actually year after year.
Which the can not to be an organic result, and not in a dynamic world, especially in that world in which we live, being devastated by any amount of potentially titanic forces that so often begin to appear in this very country. What I am saying is that there is almost certainly an effort towards a straight line (not the first time, either).
But what happens does not appear everywhere, Even on one or two lines, where in the past we could associate them with hypothetical rear actions (the ubiquitous and useful “other”).
Are ticking clocks too noticeable and obvious? I think so; as well as a decrease in visible “reserves”, which created the opposite effect from what was planned, increasing negative monetary pressure in the market (a nightmare scenario). The NBK, unlike Western economists, may have simply discovered that following an orthodox textbook on things (the basics like money and dollars), your economy will die.
Reserves do not insure against a dollar deficit, they confirm that you are the main goal. Maybe it’s better not to brazenly advertise your dollar fight?
Purposefully or not, the straight line is also not an extension. And that still means the same thing in China: there is very little room for money growth. What, for me, is more like C and Lee, the growth rate of the currency was increased for COVID-19 and the depression of closure; there are no bank reserves.
Qualitative growth in the real economy as opposed to quantitative growth led by floods of banks.
Although it may be more difficult to see as it unfolds due to the lateral base level of the NSC, what I wrote in mid-2015 can still be applied today, especially with regard to CNY:
Even the Chinese yuan has become much more stable, despite many unpleasant economic indicators and even greater uncertainty about what the NBK can or cannot do. In other words, forget about what is happening in China, the yuan is all about the “dollar” in a pure financial sense.
Especially when, oddly enough, there are no more dirty tracks at all.