July 8, 2020
AliExpress WW
Futures Slide, Dollar Spikes Ahead Of Jobless Claims

Futures Slide, Dollar Spikes Ahead Of Jobless Claims

AliExpress WW

S & P futures fell on Thursday along with European stocks as investors weighed the latest reports of new coronavirus outbreaks in China and America before a weekly report on jobless claims. The resurgence of coronavirus cases has turned the bets on a quick economic recovery after the pandemic, when S & P .SPX and Dow stopped a three-day series of victories on Wednesday.

AliExpress WW

The carnival fell 3.6% at the premarket after reporting a quarterly net loss of $ 4.4 billion and forecasting losses for the remainder of the year after the pandemic caused the cruise business to actually stop. Royal Caribbean Cruises and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings fell 2.2% and 3.2%, respectively. Despite a surge of new infections in several US states, including Texas, Florida, and Oklahoma, Trump said late Wednesday night that the United States would no longer close businesses.

At the same time, trying to ease concerns about the second wave in China, The chief epidemiologist at the China Center for Disease Prevention and Control said the latest outbreak of coronavirus in Beijing has been taken under controlhelping futures turn green for a short time.

From an economic point of view, after the latest data showed a record increase in US retail sales and an unexpected increase in jobs in May, investors will now search the Department of Labor’s weekly jobless claims report to confirm continued improvement in the economy . The number of Americans applying for state unemployment benefits is likely to decline for the eleventh consecutive week, but is still high after massive vacations and layoffs during nationwide blockages.

Politics is back in the picture after newspapers published leaked summaries of John Bolton’s book criticizing President Donald Trump.

In Europe, Stoxx Europe 600 is ranked lower Wirecard AG, a German payment company, fell 67% after it delayed for the fourth time the publication of annual financial results because it was missing $ 2.1 billion.

In Asia, inventories also declined slightly, with increased communications and a drop in materials after rising at the previous session. Markets in the region were mixed: the Jakarta Composite and the Australian S & P / ASX 200 were falling, while the Indian S & P BSE Sensex and Taiwan’s Taiex were growing. Topix fell 0.3%, Furukawa Battery and NTN fell the most. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1%, with Chongqing Iron & Steel and Tianjin Tianyao Pharmaceutical showing the biggest gains.

Treasuries lost their highs and the dollar rose around 8:00 for no apparent reason.

Elsewhere in the forex market, the pound kept most of its decline after the Bank of England expanded its quantitative easing program. The Norwegian krone has grown against all G-10 counterparts and rose to a weekly high against the euro after the Bank of Norway raised its growth and inflation forecasts for this year and raised its rate by 65 bp. until the end of 2023, compared with the earlier path, which was flat at zero. The Swiss franc barely budged even after the Swiss National Bank opposed the appreciation caused by the coronavirus pandemic, saying aggressive currency interventions remained its main instrument; Demand for the franc continued to grow in the options market. Australian and New Zealand dollars recovered amid improved risk sentiment in the European session; The Australian dollar fell earlier and the sovereign curve fell after disappointing job data, while the Qiwi fell earlier after GDP cuts in Q1, sending the country into its first recession in 10 years.

As for commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures recouped night losses by heading to OPEC’s JMMC meeting later today after yesterday’s JTC, which reportedly made no recommendations for further reductions. However, views will continue to be respected, and any coercive mechanisms advertised to ensure 100% or more compliance.

Today’s data includes weekly initial jobless claims, as well as a forecast of business activity in Philadelphia in June and a leading index for May.

Market Snapshot

  • S & P 500 Futures Up 0.2% At 3,123.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 366.53
  • MXAP down 0.01% to 158.86
  • MXAPJ up 0.02% to 511.64
  • Nikkei down 0.5% to 22 355.46
  • Topix fell 0.3% to 1583.09
  • Hang Seng Index Down 0.07% To 24,464.94
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 2,939.32
  • Sensex rose 1.3% to 33,950.44
  • Australia S & P / ASX 200 down 0.9% to 5,936.47
  • Cospy fell 0.4% to 2133.48
  • German 10Y yields up 0.2 bps up to -0.39%
  • Euro rose 0.05% to $ 1.1250
  • Italian 10Y yields up 1.8 bps up to 1.287%
  • Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 0.559%
  • Futures for Brent crude rose 0.4% to $ 40.89 per barrel.
  • Gold rose 0.6% to $ 1,736.71
  • The US dollar index fell 0.1% to 97.04

The best nightly news

  • Boris Johnson and Emmanuel Macron will meet on Thursday, the first bilateral agreement between the British Prime Minister and the European leader since he called for a new impetus to secure a post-EU trade agreement with the EU after Brexit
  • According to one of the leading Chinese experts, there was an outbreak of coronavirus in Beijing, which led to more than 150 cases of the disease.
  • The ECB has reached another milestone in the trillion euros in its struggle to support an economy affected by the coronavirus pandemic. The proposal for its ultra-cheap three-year loans was accepted by 742 banks for a total of 1.31 trillion euros on Thursday. This is in line with the forecast of 1.2 trillion to 1.5 trillion euros.
  • According to forecasts published on Friday, in May, the US budget deficit jumped by about 50 billion pounds ($ 63 billion), as the government continued to take emergency measures to support the economy in the context of the coronavirus pandemic. For the first three full months of the British Minister of Finance, Rishi Sunak will need 125 billion pounds.
  • Swedish Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson now expects GDP to fall by 6% this year from a previous forecast of about 7% amid signs of recovery from a softer approach to closing the country

Asian stocks are trading mostly negatively with investor sentiment weakened by concerns about a resurgence of coronavirus cases in the US and as participants digest recent news about weak data from the regionas well as ongoing tensions between the US and China. ASX 200 (-0.9%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) were lower: Australia was affected by losses in almost all sectors, including an early lag behind key financial indicators, as well as disappointing employment data, which added worsening sentiment, while exporters in Japan buttoned up under the onslaught of firmer currencies. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (U / C) and Shanghai Comp. (+ 0.1%) both were suppressed amid continuing tensions between the US and China, as China reacted to President Trump’s recent signing of the Uyghur human rights law that he strongly opposed and warned the US to correct their mistakes or they will decisively react to this US consequences. However, losses were mitigated on the mainland after RBC conducted open market operations to introduce liquidity, in which it used 14-day reverse repos for the first time since February and reduced the corresponding rate by 20 bp. to 2.35%, while JD.com was among today’s success stories, in which the company’s shares went up by 6% in anticipation of their debut in Hong Kong. Finally, 10-year-old JGBs were higher with prices backed by a tandem increase in T notes and amid widespread negative risk tones in the region, although some of the benefits were recovered after weaker results at the 5-year JGB auction.

Top Asian News

  • G-7 warns China’s actions in Hong Kong, jeopardizing city success
  • Indian shares rise as confidence in growth leads to growth
  • Indonesia cuts rates, signals get weaker as growth weakens

European stocks opened the session in a boring way, but continued to grow at the start of trading, before receiving an additional impetus in the headlines that Beijing was controlling the second outbreak in the city.Since then, stocks have abandoned some of their recent gains and meanders around a constant mark with the best FTSE 100 in the UK (+ 0.1%), as exporters benefit from a weaker pound before deciding on a Bank of England policy. Wider sectors are mixed with a lack of a clear definition of risk, as cyclical and protective measures remain a broken compass. However, the industry breakdown has led to a more cyclical shift in early trading, as Healthcare lost its previous top position and traded at the bottom of the heap, while Travel & Leisure made its way from the bottom to one of the best performers, along with insurance. chemical industry. Banks and technology, although the picture has become more mixed in the early morning when oil and gas have now become backward. Individual shares were focused on the DAX payment card (-46%), whose shares fell by more than 60% at one time, as the expectations of the results that were published today were again broken due to signs of false confirmation of the balance. The group said it would announce a revised release date at the appointed time, but if certified annual and consolidated financial statements were not submitted before June 19, 2020, loans provided by Wirecard AG in the amount of about 2 billion Euros could be terminated. Elsewhere, Carnival shares (-2.4%) could not catch the tailwind from the recovery in the broader Travel & Leisure segment amid a downgrade of the broker in Berenberg, although the group’s earnings that were released during the session provided little by changing the price stocks, despite the absence of both the top and bottom lines. UBS (+ 1.0%) and Credit Suisse (+ 0.6%) supported SNB, saying banks were strong enough to withstand the pandemic.

Top European News

  • Bank of Norway crisis rates can be canceled in two years
  • SNB warns markets: it will battle against franc strength
  • Sweden raises economy outlook as recovery starts to rise
  • German Movement Against Foreign Acquisitions Ready For Final Approval

In FX, this is 2 down and 1 in terms of today’s bonus from the Central Bank of the EU, while SNB and the Bank of Norway adhere to the scenario, leaving base rates at -0.75% and zero, respectively. However, the former officially raised its franc rating to a high rating from an even higher rating in March in recognition of its softening after a previous quarterly policy review, while the latter gave more optimistic economic prospects based on a faster recovery than anticipated in its previous May meeting. In response, Usd / Chf and Eur / Chf remained mostly in the range of 0.9500 and below 1.0700, but Eur / Nok plummeted to 10.6250 from 10.7500 highs also in recognition of the revised depot path, marking growth after 2022 of the year. Conversely, the pound was worried and pressured to wait for the Bank of England at noon amid expectations of an additional QE of at least £ 100 billion, but without changes in the Bank rate, as cable testing stops to a minimum of the environment (1.2510) and EUR / Gbp growing again around 0.9000 from 0.8950 at one stage. Please note that a full preview of the solution and minutes of MPC policy can be found in the research set or through the heading.

  • US Dollar – In addition to the discrepancies noted above, the dollar and major counterparts are still relatively limited between recent / familiar boundaries and are illustrated by the fact that DXY has difficulty deviating from 97,000 and is not even tempted to deviate far from knee-high growth in a broad risk mood among reports. that Beijing was able to take control of the latest outbreak of COVID-19. Ahead of the weekly US bids along with Philly Fed could lead to higher prices.
  • CAD / EUR / JPY / AUD / NZD – All narrowly mixed against the US dollar, as looney cuts losses from below 1.3600 to 1.3520 in anticipation of data on new property prices in Canada and wholesale until the performance of Schambri from BoC, while the Euro holds yesterday’s lows and approaches the expiration rate of a decent option between 1.1245-60 (1.3 billion) after a slight reaction to the latest ECB monthly bulletin or TLTRO takeoff near the upper limit of the forecast range. In other places, the yen ranges from 106.71–107.07 after a modest rise overnight, when markets were somewhat more nervous, but still slightly superior to kiwi and Australian, which were hindered by disappointing data (GDP and jobs). Indeed, Nzd / Usd and Aud / Usd fell from about 0.6900 and 0.6480, respectively, although from the worst levels below 0.6840 and 0.6425.

In the goods Futures for WTI and Brent crude oil recouped losses the night before, arriving at a JMMC OPEC + meeting later after yesterday’s JTC, which reportedly made no recommendations for further cuts. However, views will continue to be respected, and any coercive mechanisms advertised to ensure 100% or more compliance. On this front, sources said Iraq and Kazakhstan will present a plan to reduce oil production and compensation for overproduction at the meeting. Saudi Arabia and Russia will lead the press conference after the meeting, although leaks are expected (a full tutorial is available here). Futures also rose at the start of trading amid comments by the Chinese CDC expert who felt that the outbreak in Beijing had held back – which served as an incentive for a general risk appetite and pushed WTI by July north of $ 38 per barrel. (Against a low of 37.11 / bbl.) And Brent August is higher. 41 US dollars per barrel (against the low level of 40.06 per barrel). Meanwhile, spot gold supported weaker US dollars and was based on growth above $ 1,730 an ounce, having had no incident overnight. However, copper prices remained virtually unchanged that day, despite rising stocks, while iron ore prices fell below $ 100 / t after Weyl was given the green light to reopen its Itabira complex after coronavirus measures.

American calendar of events

  • 8:30 am: Philadelphia Fed business forecast, -21.3, previously -43.1
  • 8:30 AM: Initial jobless claims, estimated at 1.29 million, previously 1.54 million; Ongoing claims, valuation of 19.9 million. Up to 20.9 million.
  • 10:00: leading index, a score of 2.4%, up to 4.4%

DB Jim Reed Finishes Night Film

The best news I received in the last 24 hours is that after 6 days someone from Chill Acoustic rebooted their system and we returned to normal. Expect my performance before the rocket. In fact, the client did a very good thing for me, tracked down the founder and contacted him. He was a little puzzled by the attention and simply said that he would switch the servers. Thanks also to all those who discovered what picture was in my WFH setting in our new video series (link here directly to the video again). There were several honest scientists who understood this correctly, and many of them, I suspect, used the Google lens, which I only found out yesterday after an honest client informed me. This allows you to identify almost everything by photo / your camera. My wife was eager to find out what flowers were in our garden from the previous owner, and I was able to hit her last night by letting her know. I did not tell her how, but she was very impressed. This is our little secret now.

Unfortunately, Google Lens cannot tell me which direction the markets are moving, so I will have to continue with the lucky coin that I have. Yesterday was a more boring day compared to a busy Tuesday. S & P 500 volumes can confirm this, being about 17% below the monthly average. Nevertheless, the same topics dominated, as we assessed the importance of the growing workload across the US states compared to the continued huge liquidity in the markets.

By the end of the session, the S & P 500 index showed 3 consecutive growths after a significant drop last Thursday to 0.36%, as shares of energy companies lowered the index amid falling oil prices. The second day of Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony wasn’t quite an event, but we will talk more about this below. Outside of Energy (-3.28%), Banks (-2.69%) and Automobiles (-1.97%) were the worst indicators, as the cyclicality lagged. The general index traded in a range of about 30 points all day, more densely than in the last week or so, and finished at the bottom of this range. Volatility also remained elevated, even though the VIX index closed at -0.2 points to 33.5 points. Это все еще выше уровней vol во второй половине мая, когда повествование стало более позитивным. Тем не менее, акции технологических компаний показали лучшие результаты: индекс NASDAQ вырос на 0,15%, что стало его восьмым ростом за последние 9 сессий. Европейские акции также показали хорошие результаты: STOXX 600 вырос на 0,74%, DAX, CAC 40 и FTSE 100 также выросли.

В других местах доходность 10-летних казначейских облигаций США упала на -1,5 б.п. до 0,738%, в то время как периферийные облигации немного сузились: BTP (-1,6 б.п.), испанские (-0,9 б.п.) и греческие (-0,1 б.п.) все усиливаются в конце сессии. Как и в случае с акциями, нефть марки Brent также завершила серию трех последовательных повышений: вчера она упала на -0,61% до 40,71 долл. / Барр., А WTI также упала на -1,09% до 37,96 долл. / Барр.

Что касается последних данных о коронавирусе, то вчера в разных штатах США продолжалось расхождение показателей здоровья. Положительным моментом стало то, что вчера в Нью-Йорке было зарегистрировано только 17 смертей по сравнению с 25 днем ​​ранее, в то время как число госпитализированных пациентов упало ниже 1500 человек. Действительно, губернатор Куомо сказал, что Нью-Йорк готовится ко второму этапу открытия в понедельник, в то время как остальная часть штата будет находиться на этапе 3. Хотя в других местах картина была не такой хорошей, так как Техас видел число количество госпитализаций выросло на 11% за последние 24 часа, в то время как во Флориде число случаев вчера увеличилось на 3,3% по сравнению со средним показателем в 2,8% за предыдущие 7 дней. Другой тревожный показатель из Флориды заключается в том, что положительный тестовый показатель вырос до 10,3% вчера с 7,4% в начале недели. Прошло более 2 месяцев с тех пор, как показатель был таким высоким. Случаи в Калифорнии выросли на 3,4%, превысив 7-дневное среднее значение в 2,1%, так как штат продолжает бороться, подавляя общий рост заболеваемости. Мы подчеркнули, как дискриминационный Covid-19 основывается на возрасте, и Нейт Сильвер (известный как fivethirtyeight.com) обратил внимание на то, насколько разным было распространение коронавируса в Нью-Йорке и Техасе: «В Нью-Йорке 24% известных случаев среди людей 65+, в то время как в Техасе это 16% ». Вполне возможно, что пожилые люди в Техасе смогли отделиться лучше, чем в Нью-Йорке, что может ограничить ущерб от числа случаев риска.

В Европе, которая в целом преследовала гораздо более жесткие ограничения, мясокомбинат в Германии был закрыт после того, как сотни рабочих обнаружили положительный результат на коронавирус. Теперь мы официально знаем, что способствовало тому, что число случаев во вторник подскочило на 570, что стало самым большим однодневным ростом в стране с 29 мая как в абсолютном, так и в процентном отношении. Рост на 0,3% был относительно значительным, учитывая 7-дневное среднее значение 0,1%. Случаи выросли на 0,2% (352 в абсолютном выражении) вчера, но нам нужно будет посмотреть, как дела развиваются в течение следующей недели, чтобы увидеть, будет ли это событие иметь волновые эффекты. Также были тревожные признаки ухудшения ситуации в Иране, который был одной из самых ранних затронутых стран, поскольку число смертей выросло за 4-й день до 120, самого высокого показателя за 2 месяца. См. «Просмотр отчета» вверху, где приведены обычные таблицы заболеваемости и смертности со всего мира и основных американских штатов.

Возвращаясь к рынкам, и довольно не насыщенная событиями ночная сессия привела к тому, что большинство бирж в Азии демонстрируют скромные потери, хотя и не достигли своих минимальных значений для сессии. Действительно, Nikkei (-0,32%), Hang Seng (-0,22%), ASX (-0,80%) и Kospi (-0,13%) упали, в то время как китайские биржи торгуются без изменений. Между тем, доходность 10-летних UST снижается еще на 3 б.п., а фьючерсы на S & P 500 снижаются на -0,63%. Опережающие результаты для Китая могут отражать отчет Bloomberg, предполагающий, что страна снизит коэффициент обязательных резервов и будет использовать свою политику предоставления резервов, чтобы сохранить достаточную ликвидность, сославшись на заседание Государственного совета под председательством премьер-министра Ли Кэцяна.

Вчера председатель ФРС Пауэлл дал показания перед Комитетом по финансовым услугам Палаты представителей, выступив перед коллегой в Сенате накануне. Он придерживался тех же общих тем для разговора. Вчера мы подчеркнули заявления Председателя ФРС о вторичном рынке корпоративного кредитования, и он продолжил его, заявив, что ФРС в конечном итоге отойдет от покупок ЕФО и сосредоточится в первую очередь на покупке облигаций. Как вчера упоминал Крэйг, риск для кредита, возможно, заключается в том, что ФРС отказывается от использования где-либо рядом с таким количеством огневой мощи, как предполагалось. Если так, то Пауэлл, возможно, приходит к выводу, что нет острой необходимости чрезмерной фиксации на рынке, который функционирует. Однако сколько из этого функционирования рынка зависит от ожиданий, что ФРС собирается купить значительно больше, чем, возможно, сигнализирует сейчас? Интересный, чтобы следовать.

Что касается геополитических обновлений, то вчера ситуация несколько успокоилась после столкновений между индийскими и китайскими войсками, когда министры иностранных дел и высокопоставленные военные командиры двух стран разговаривали по телефону, чтобы снять напряженность. Однако на Корейском полуострове после того, как Северная Корея взорвала офис связи на своей стороне границы в начале недели, они вчера заявили, что будут отправлять войска в пограничные районы, откуда обе стороны ранее договорились вывести войска. войска. Поэтому, безусловно, стоит следить за ростом напряженности там.

Сегодня внимание будет обращено на Банк Англии, который позже объявит о своем последнем решении по денежно-кредитной политике. Что касается того, чего ожидать, наши экономисты прогнозируют, что Банк Англии присоединится к ЕЦБ и объявит о дальнейшем расширении своей программы QE после пандемии, с расширением в 125 миллиардов фунтов стерлингов, хотя риски для этого повышаются, поскольку MPC может удивить более сильным ответом. Сегодняшнее решение последует за очередным снижением инфляции ИПЦ, поскольку вчерашние данные показали, что она упала до + 0,5% в мае, как и ожидалось, что является самым низким годовым уровнем инфляции с июня 2016 года, а также немного ниже целевого показателя Банка Англии в 2%. Базовая инфляция была сильнее, хотя даже она упала до + 1,2% (ожидалось + 1,3%).

Вчерашние данные по жилью из США несколько обескуражили: число домов, начавшихся в мае, составило 974 тыс. В годовом исчислении (против ожидаемых 1,1 млн.). Тем не менее, это знаменует собой отскок от пересмотренного в апреле значения 934k. Разрешения на строительство также не оправдали себя, поднявшись до 1,220 млн. (Против ожидаемых 1,245 млн.), Хотя, опять же, это был отскок от 1,066 млн. В апреле. В Европе произошел некоторый отскок в регистрации новых автомобилей в EU27. Они «только» снизились на -52,3% по сравнению с предыдущим годом, по сравнению с -76,3% в апреле.

На сегодняшний день, и центральные банки будут на повестке дня сегодня, поскольку решения по денежно-кредитной политике будут приниматься Банком Англии, Швейцарским национальным банком, Банком Норвегии и Банком Индонезии. Кроме того, ЕЦБ будет публиковать свой Экономический бюллетень, в то время как Федеральный вестник ФРС и Бродбент Банка Англии и Тенрейро будут выступать. Основные данные включают еженедельные первичные заявки на пособие по безработице из США, а также прогнозы деловой активности ФРС-Филадельфии в июне и ведущий индекс за май.


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