Alternative data sources that track hourly employees show a slowdown in job recovery in recent weeks as coronavirus cases are accelerating in large cities like Phoenix, Houston and Los Angeles.
Data from Home baseThe planner, which works with many small and medium-sized enterprises in the service sector, shows that employment may have declined over the past week in some areas, from June 24, when fewer employees worked on average than from June 15-19. most states.
Earlier in June, a St. Louis Fed economist identified Homebase as a data set that was more predictive than an unexpected employment report in May than many economists. At that time, the data showed continued dynamics for several weeks after the survey dates of the May employment report.
Homebase data is not a representative sample of the US economy, but it reflects a slowdown in the recovery of weekly primary unemployment claim data, which has slowed slightly over the past three weeks but is still at historically high levels. The most recent reading was for 1.48 million new claims, higher than economists had expected, although the number of ongoing claims fell below 20 million.
“Despite the slow, slight improvement in the labor market is a positive sign that we are on the path to recovery, but the growing number of claims that the incidence of viral diseases is growing proves that there will be problems along the way,” Charlie Ripley, Senior Investment strategist For Allianz Investment Management, the report said.
Data from Kronos, another major hourly management company, also showed a slowdown in job recovery, according to Dave Gilbertson, vice president of strategy and operations. Gilbertson said that in recent weeks, the growth rate of hourly data collectors has fallen to half of what it was at the beginning of the recovery.
“We really saw that the turning point came right after Memorial Day,” Gilbertson said.
According to him, retail trade, hospitality and healthcare are three industries that seek to align their recovery rates. According to Gilbertson, the shifts that have occurred in the southeastern part of the United States have generally equaled over the past month, although it remains to be seen whether this is due to an increase in the number of cases of coronavirus.
“This week and next week, we are looking more closely at the situation in which we are trying to compare the states that have higher Covid peaks with a slowdown, or even in some cases a decrease,” Gilbertson said.
Subscribe to CNBC PRO for exclusive analysis and analysis, as well as for programming direct working days from around the world.