The growing number of cases of coronavirus in the United States and Brazil, as well as new outbreaks in Germany, where the rate of reproduction of the disease has increased significantly, are of concern to health experts around the world, but international financial markets do not seem to be too concerned.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the largest one-day increase in global coronavirus cases was recorded on Sunday. after the world has recorded more than 183,000 new cases,
In Brazil, with nearly 55,000 new infections, the largest number of reported cases followed by the United States, and on Sunday more than 36,000 new cases. At the same time, over 15,000 new infections have been reported in India.
It should be noted that an increase in the number of cases of coronavirus may be associated with an increase and more common testing, as well as with abnormalities in data collection. For example, a significant surge in incidence in Brazil on Sunday was partially due to a delay in reporting data from three states (Bahia, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo) for two days, WHO notes.
However, the surge in cases does not seem to be one-off. In the United States, more than 30,000 new cases of coronavirus were reported both on Friday and Saturday, with infections in the states in the south, west, and midwest.
However, global markets do not seem too concerned about the rise in the incidence of coronavirus; US stock futures rose early Monday morning after strong weekly results on Wall Street, while Asian stocks were mixed Monday. European markets opened lower, but cut early losses, trading only 0.1%.
According to Johns Hopkins University, the total number of cases confirmed in the world since the outbreak is currently approaching 9 million, and the death toll is approaching half a million, with 468,331 people reporting deaths.
In Germany, the indicator “R”
Even Germany, the country that was announced as a poster child for its coronavirus strategy, showed that its reproduction rate rose to 2.88 on Sunday.
The carefully observed “R” indicator refers to the number of people that an infected person infects on average. The current R in Germany means that on average 100 people infected with the virus will infect 288 people. Experts want the replay number, or R-speed, to be less than one to slow the spread.
According to the German Institute for Public Health, the Robert Koch Institute, this is a 4-day moving average that reflects the incidence rate about one to two weeks ago. The R indicator “is sensitive to short-term changes in the number of cases, for example, caused by individual outbreaks. This can lead to relatively large fluctuations, especially if the total number of new cases is small,” RKI noted.
The increase in R in the country and the number of new infections (687 were recorded on Sunday) reflects local outbreaks in nursing homes, several religious communities and schools, as well as an outbreak at a meat processing plant where more than 1,000 employees tested. positive for Covid-19, RKI noted.
Germany’s data are sobering, given that they are being praised for the coronavirus strategy. He introduced early contact tracking and managed to keep the death toll low compared to other countries. He reported 8,895 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins Universitydespite 191,272 confirmed cases of the virus, mortality is much lower than that of its Western European counterparts. For example, in France, a similar number of cases was recorded – a little over 197,000, but the death toll is 29,643.
The increase in the number of cases observed around the world occurred after many countries lifted a number of restrictions placed on public and business life during the blockages.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund warned that the global economy is on the path to a more significant reduction than the 3% it estimated in April.
Economists are closely monitoring global indicators, but are weighing their potential impact on global economic recovery.
“Could an increase in the number of new infections force advanced economies to again impose such severe and widespread blockages that would undermine confidence and frustrate the nascent economic boom? Four months after the virus began to hit Europe severely, this remains a key risk for keeping an eye on economic prospects, as well as financial markets, ”said Holger Schmiding, chief economist at Berenberg on Monday.