According to University of Washington Yahoo Finance Analysis Institute for Health Indicators and Assessment (IHME) In the coronavirus death rate model, the number of republican states is growing that is projected to have the highest increase in mortality associated with COVID-19.
previous analysis from predictions of deaths in all 50 states and Washington, DC, it was found that eight of the 10 states with the highest expected increases in mortality were Republican governors. This figure has been increased to nine.
Moreover, the analysis showed that Republicans control about 70% of the states in the country with the highest increase in mortality forecasts.
Yahoo Finance reviewed current forecasts of deaths on October 1 and compared them to the number of recorded deaths in May. For consistency, the analysis uses IHME digits for all data.
The top state on the list was Texas, which rose from the previous No. 17 spot on the list. The predicted number of deaths from coronavirus represents an increase of 1204% of the number of deaths recorded by May 8th.
According to the IHME, some 13,800 deaths are expected in Texas by fall. As of June 20, IHME recorded 2,147 deaths – more than double the May figure, which amounted to 1,053 people. This figure also represents a significant increase in the initial projected increase in mortality. In May, it was expected that by August in Texas, the number of deaths would increase by 144%.
Current forecasts are 738% more than the original forecast.
Texas was one of the first states to reopen. But before alarming increase in the daily count of coronaviruses, Texas Governor Greg Abbott decided to place “Pause” on openingand banned elective operations in an attempt to suppress the virus in the Lone Star state.
Next on the list is Arizona, which is expected to have an 1120% increase in mortality by October after recorded state deaths in May. Arizona previously ranked first on the list.
Arizona Governor Doug Duce has has stopped on the return of the state to closing, but asked citizens to stay at home.
Also on the list of the 10 states that are expected to see the largest increase in mortality compared to their registered May levels are Arkansas, Florida, Utah, Oregon, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Nebraska and Missouri.
Oregon is the only state in the top 10 with democratic leadership.
In all states that cracked the top 10, the expected number of deaths increased by more than 500% compared with the recorded number of deaths in May. In some states, the latest forecast for deaths is also a significant increase over previously reported numbers.
In other words, thanks to the reopening, predictions of IHME deaths have been drastically revised for some states compared to others. New Oregon forecasts are 800% more than previous forecasts. The new death toll in Arkansas represents an increase of 600%.
However, as Yahoo Finance found out, states with democratic leadership live much better than their Republican counterparts. Seven out of 10 states have Democratic Governors.
At the very bottom of the list is New York, which is expected to see a 20% surge in deaths compared to the number of deaths recorded in May. While New York is one of the highest in the country in terms of absolute number of deaths, the prognosis of the number of deaths in the state has remained rather flat.
Below are Vermont, Michigan, New Jersey, Connecticut, Idaho, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Colorado and Oklahoma. In all states, with the exception of Oklahoma, it is expected that by October the number of deaths from coronavirus will increase by less than 100% compared with the levels recorded in May.
New York, New Jersey and Connecticut This Week introduced quarantine for visitors from countries with significantly high levels of COVID-19. Many of these states hacked the top 10 on the list of the largest increases in coronavirus mortality in Yahoo Finance, including Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, Washington, Utah, and Texas.
Christine Myers, a reporter for Yahoo Finance. For her on twitter,