August 12, 2020
AliExpress WW
America's Jobless Claims Data Refuse To Confirm V-Shaped Recovery Narrative

America’s Jobless Claims Data Refuse To Confirm V-Shaped Recovery Narrative

AliExpress WW

As fears of the second wave of COVID (and the attendant risk of re-locks for America) increase, last week, for the first time, 1.48 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits. (noticeably worse than 1.32 mm expected).

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Source: Bloomberg

Thus, the total number for fourteen weeks amounted to 47.25 million, which is significantly more than for any period in American history. However, as shown in the graph above, the second derivative turned around the corner (even though 1.48 million growth this past week is still higher than any other week in history outside of the pandemic)

California and Maryland were the worst states for jobless claims the previous week, with Oklahoma and Kentucky showing the greatest improvement …

Claims continued modestly, but it is unlikely that a signal of a “reopening” is taking place! And definitely does not confirm PMI data …

Source: Bloomberg

And, as we noted earlier, the most worrying thing is that over the past 14 weeks More than twice as many Americans applied for unemployment benefits than the number of jobs received in the last decade after the end of the Great Recession… (22.13 million, Received in a decade, 47.25 million in 14 weeks)

Even worse, the final numbers are likely to be worsened due to the bailout itself: as a reminder, the Coronavirus Aid, Assistance and Economic Security Act (CARES), passed on March 27, could contribute to new records coming soon weeks. since it increases the right to receive unemployment benefits for self-employed and giant workers, increases the maximum number of weeks for which benefits can be received, and provides an additional $ 600 per week until July 31.

Finally, it’s noteworthy we lost 387 jobs for every confirmed death in the US from COVID-19 (121,979)Was it worth it?

The big question remains – what happens when the bonus payments under the CARES $ 600 law cease? Will those who stay at home be able to find work (due to the fact that they sit more on the couch than work)?

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